​​In Italy, in case of very high temperatures, adequacy – the balance between generation and consumption – will have to be monitored most of the summer and in particular from mid-June till end of July. This is due to reduced generation capacity in the North and Central North, due to the recent closing down of several power plants, and possible constrained flows in the northern and southern areas.

Terna, the Italian TSO, has already planned countermeasures (demand side response, temporary reactivation of closed plants…) but a risk still exists of some planned load shedding in case of very strong heat waves and low hydro reserves.

ENTSO-E performs its pan-European system adequacy analysis for the hour of 19.00 Central European Summer Time (CEST). This is when consumption, deducted from variable renewable, is generally at its peak. The probability of high temperatures as well as wind and photovoltaic generation conditions are also considered.

For Poland, the analysis does not show any risk at 19.00 CEST but adequacy might be under stress at other times. Indeed, the consumption peak in Poland occurs between 13:00 and 14:00 CEST and solar generation is still negligible. Even though there is a high amount of solar generation available at the same time in neighbouring Germany, import is limited due to unscheduled flows through the Polish system (in the west to south direction).

Read the report & download the data

Review of the January 2017 cold spell

The Winter Review 2016/2017 published alongside the Summer Outlook is complemented by a dedicated ENTSO-E report on the January 2017 cold spell entitled “Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges”. It looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​ Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe